Republican Women on the Brink

Can we push GOP women over the abortion rights edge?

I was reading an article about Republican women and abortion at The New York Times recently when I noticed some awfully important information buried fourteen paragraphs deep: The percent of Republican women who believe their party’s view on abortion is “too extreme” jumped by seventeen points since June 2022.

Public opinion researcher Tresa Undem of PerryUndem found that whereas 22% of Republican women reported the party was too radical on abortion right before Roe was overturned, 39% now say the same:

“Over the past year, abortion as an issue has quickly become tied with health, medicine, safety and security, on top of bodily autonomy, Ms. Undem said. A majority of Republican women also now cite ‘women’s rights’ as an ‘extremely or very important issue’ in their vote, up from 31 percent, a phrase Ms. Undem says is closely associated with abortion rights.”

That’s a significant shift over a short period of time, even with margins of error! It also aligns with what we’re seeing more broadly—that abortion rights are incredibly popular and only getting more so. Remember, 81% of Americans believe that the government shouldn’t be regulating abortion at all.

What’s more, when I reached out to Undem about the poll, she told me that they also looked at Republican women’s exposure to certain kinds of post-Roe horror stories—the stories we’ve all been seeing and talking about for the last two years. The stories that have been stoking voter fury and driving people to the polls.

In their yet-to-be-released report, PerryUndem found that while pro-choice Republican women have read or heard these kinds of experiences, Republican women who don’t support abortion are largely unaware of them.

Undem found that while 40% of pro-choice Republican women had heard stories about patients with pregnancy complications needing to leave their states for care, only 18% of anti-abortion Republican women heard the same. When it came to being exposed to stories of pregnant women almost dying because of an abortion ban, it was 30% to 8%. For raped children denied care, 30% versus 13%.

In other words: the nightmare stories of post-Roe America are not reaching anti-abortion Republican women. Presumably, their media filter bubble is shielding them.

That said, there are some reproductive rights stories breaking through—the ones about IVF court rulings. Pro-choice and anti-choice Republican women were equally as likely to have heard about those cases. It makes sense, really; those are the consequences of abortion bans most likely to impact financially secure white women. And as I’ve written previously, Republicans are more comfortable defending IVF because it adheres to a model of womanhood they agree with—one where women are eager to be mothers. These ‘good’ women are more deserving of sympathy and care.

If IVF stories can break through, there’s no reason other abortion ban consequences shouldn’t be able to do the same. What would happen if anti-choice Republican women were forced to confront the reality of these policies? Could it make a difference in November?

Part of the reason that Republican women increasingly report that the GOP is too extreme on abortion is because they’re witnessing the impact of bans. Undem tells me she thinks the shift comes down to Republican women who have had personal experiences with abortion, those who have a loved one with an abortion experience, and those who are reading the nonstop flood of horror stories out of anti-choice states. So it’s reasonable to believe that breaking through the bubble to reach those who’ve spent the last two years largely unaware could be meaningful. From Undem:

“If you don’t hear about any negative outcomes of bans, why oppose them? It’s clear from the data that these stories are not showing up in their media or social ecosystems. Were they showing up more, I think we’d be likely to see  more shift in opinion.”

We can’t rely on conservative publications to do this, nor can we count on post-Roe horror stories busting through social media echo chambers. Breaking the filter bubble will largely come down to individual engagement—folks like you and me reaching out to the people in our lives and communities, showing them what happens when you legislate pregnancy.

Now, before any of us picks up the phone, let’s be clear: Many Republican women simply do not and will not care. When I write about the punishment being the point, I’m not just talking about male lawmakers and anti-abortion activists. Republican women, too, enjoy making others suffer. In fact, that hurt may be precisely why they support abortion bans.

For those who are able to be reached, it’s also very possible that any distress they feel won’t be enough to change their vote. We’ve seen the way that white Republican women are willing to overlook injustices, including misogyny, in service of their racism and privilege.

And in a moment when we’re being inundated with attacks, we need to treat our activism like a precious resource. I don’t believe in ‘debating’ abortion or talking to brick walls. BUT, with the stakes as high as they are this November, there is value in exploring every option. And in an election where every race and every vote counts, so does every bit of activism. (I also know that there are some very smart and well-connected people who read this newsletter; if you’re someone who works on media bubbles, outreach or messaging, maybe you have some thoughts.)

What polls like Undem’s show, again and again, is what feminists have been screaming from the rooftops for years: abortion rights is popular. For far too long, Democrats haven’t capitalized on that popularity, instead choosing to run from the issue or engage it apologetically. There’s never been a better moment to be proactive and take chances.

And if targeting Republican women with post-Roe horror stories doesn’t change their minds, we can at least accomplish something else: Making sure they know exactly what their votes have done to the rest of us.

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