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Lisa Leigh's avatar

In trying to understand how states like Arizona, Kansas, Kentucky, and Missouri vote to protect abortion rights, yet remain governed by Republican legislative majorities, I ran some numbers.

This is what the math shows:

In Kansas, an estimated 21–31% of Republican voters approved the abortion rights amendment while also voting for Republican legislators.

In Kentucky, the crossover rate is 18–29%.

In Missouri, it’s roughly 20–35%.

In Arizona, about 16–28%.

These numbers show roughly one out of every four Republicans voted both for abortion protections AND for Republican legislators who oppose them. These voters are making two conflicting choices on the same ballot.

Voters should understand that when a constitutional amendment protecting abortion passes, it becomes binding law and cannot simply be overturned. BUT legislatures still control how that new law/amendment is put into practice. That includes writing the rules about how it works, how it’s administered, how doctors and facilities are regulated, and how it is enforced. When that framework is written by a Republican majority, it will reflect their priorities.

So the right to abortion may be protected on paper, while how it works in real life is shaped by the legislature.

The deeper issue is this: party identity (being a republican) is operating separate from policy preference (abortion rights). A significant share of voters are choosing abortion rights as a policy preference but Republican political identity as their governing preference. Political identity is overriding policy alignment. That reality has consequences.

The question is not whether voters support abortion rights. The referendum results prove that the majority does.

The question is whether voters connect their vote for Republican representation to the highly unfavorable, restrictive and punitive abortion policy consequences that follow.

Until that connection becomes understood, the pattern of discarding the will of the voters will continue in those red states.

Regarding the Tennessee psychopath, when a gubernatorial candidate calls for executing women, it’s worth asking what in his past explains that level of animus. I hope journalists dig deep on this.

Victoria Wright's avatar

I've been having dark thoughts lately about "catch kits" and malicious compliance.

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