Election Day Explainer

If you care about abortion rights, here's what to look for

As you know, abortion is very much on the ballot in multiple states—explicitly and otherwise. If you need a refresher on what we’re watching for in Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Kentucky, check out my breakdown from earlier in the week:

Abortion on the Ballot

But don’t worry, we’re going to get into it all here, as well! Here’s what you need to know:

Virginia

The short version is that Virginia Republicans want to pass a 15-week abortion ban. They’re hoping the results today will give them control of the legislature and the ability to push that ban through. Virginia is currently the southernmost state without a post-Roe change to its abortion policies, which means that a new ban would decimate what little abortion access there is left in the region.

Anti-abortion groups are also looking at Virginia as a test case for certain campaigning and messaging tactics—like claiming that abortion bans aren’t bans at all. (For more info on how Republicans in the state have been trying to convince voters that their ban “isn’t a ban” but a ‘reasonable compromise’, click here.)

In yesterday’s newsletter, I also reported how Republicans on the ballot are trying to make abortion bans sound downright pro-choice—and the way that Gov. Glenn Youngkin is lying about “settling” at 15-weeks. Republicans have no intention of stopping at 15-weeks, and groups like Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America are certainly not spending millions of dollars in the state just to stop at a 15-week ban!

Let’s get into the nitty gritty (courtesy of AED researcher Grace Haley): Virginia Republicans hold a narrow majority in the state House (52-48) and Democrats hold the majority in the state Senate (22-17). These are the races to keep an eye on that will give us an idea of who will have control of the Commonwealth’s chambers.

Virginia State Senate - 31st District:

This is the state’s most expensive race, with historic sums streaming in from both anti-abortion and pro-choice groups. In the race between Democrat Russet Perry and Republican Juan Pablo Segura in the outer Washington suburbs, both candidates have represented their party’s playbooks on abortion. Segura is one of the GOP candidates who has been pushing hard on claims that their proposed 15-week abortion ban is ‘not a ban’ at all but a ‘consensus’.

Perry, on the other hand, has organized her campaign around abortion, appearing at events featuring Virginia OBGYNs and Planned Parenthood officials—with messaging about potential abortion bans and the fear of criminalization if Republicans gain control of both chambers.

Virginia State Senate - 16th District:

Outside Richmond, Democrat Schuyler VanValkenburg is challenging incumbent Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant. Republican Dunnavant (former OBGYN) released an ad promoting the 15-week ban as “reasonable,” and touts the (false) talking point that current Virginia policy allows for abortion “up until birth.” She’s also tried to position the ban as a “proposal to keep abortion legal.” VanValkenburg has defended Virginia’s 26-week law, a strategy that many of the state’s Democrats running in competitive races are adapting this cycle.

Virginia State House - 21st District, 22nd District, 30th District, 57th District, 65th District, 82nd District, 97th District:

These are must-win competitive races for Republicans to keep the chamber. Located throughout the Northern Virginia suburbs, Virginia Beach, Fredericksburg, and Richmond, the Republican candidates in these races have adopted Youngkin’s vision for a 15-week abortion-ban and the messaging around abortion restrictions. But here’s the thing: We know they’re not going to stop at 15 weeks. Republican candidate John Stirrup (HD-21) was recently caught telling a supporter he would “would support a 100% ban” and would “like to see, you know, [a] total ban” (and he’s not the only one who has been caught saying this).

Kentucky

Abortion has taken center stage in the gubernatorial race in Kentucky. We’ve seen Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear go after the state’s abortion laws , and he’s nd attacked his Republican opponent, Attorney General Daniel Cameron, on his anti-choice extremismm. It’s a definite change of political pace in Republican-heavy states, and a sign of how powerful abortion rights has become.

Beshear’s campaign, for example, put out an ad featuring a young woman who was raped by her stepfather as a child. “This is to you, Daniel Cameron,” she says. “To tell a 12 year-old girl she must have the baby of her stepfather who raped her is unthinkable.” In response, Cameron went on a months-long streak of flip-flopping over whether or not he’d support abortion ban exceptions. (The short version? He won’t.)

Also remember that it was Abortion, Every Day that first flagged the fact that Cameron signed a pledge to criminalize birth control. In a 2023 questionnaire from Northern Kentucky Right to Life, Cameron affirmed that he would codify personhood from the moment of fertilization, support legislation that prohibits state funding for abortion, and criminalize anyone who provides abortion care or even pays for an abortion. The kicker: The organization defines abortion to include “the so-called ‘morning after pill,’ Norplant, Depo Provera, or the so-called ‘standard birth control pill.’”

This is exactly what I’ve been writing about for months—Republicans want to redefine certain types of birth control as abortion:

The GOP’s Plan to Ban Birth Control (Part II)

By the way, after Abortion, Every Day made that story go viral, Cameron came out to say that he would never, ever ban birth control. Do we believe him? Of course not.

Pennsylvania 

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court race has become all about abortion—and an expensive one at that. The latest reports show spending for the race surpassing $17 million!

Democrat Dan McCaffery is running against Republican Carolyn Carluccio, who has been trying to distance herself from her anti-abortion extremism. Carluccio deleted language from her campaign website that called her a defender of “all life under the law,” and has accused the media of mischaracterizing her views.

Carluccio has also spent her campaign dodging questions about the judiciary’s role in protecting abortion rights, despite a number of endorsements from anti-abortion groups in the state. She claims that she’d “follow the law”—but that’s what they all said about Roe, too!

Although this race won’t immediately affect who controls the court majority, the liberal majority would be narrowed if Carluccio wins; and Pennsylvania Democrats are taking the long view to protect abortion rights. Democrats also hoping for a win similar to the one we saw in Wisconsin, where the Court make-up switched after a campaign hyper-focused on abortion rights.

Back in August, Democratic Rep. Brendan Boyle told POLITICO that abortion would be “the single biggest issue” in the race:

“Just a few months ago, in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, abortion was the single biggest reason why Democrats won by over 10 points. I could see something similar happening in Pa.”

Ohio

I’ve written so much about Ohio these last few months, I can’t imagine you’re not total fucking experts at this point. But just in case you need a refresher: In Ohio, voters will decide on Issue 1—a ballot measure to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. Republicans did everything in their power to stop this moment from happening, knowing that every time abortion is on the ballot abortion wins.

For a 5-minute rundown on all the different ways the state GOP and anti-abortion activists tried to quash Issue 1, check out this TikTok I did earlier today:

@auntiekilljoyIf they think Ohio voters are ‘pro-life’ then why are they working so hard to keep people from voting?? #abortion #abortioneveryday #feminism #fyp #politics #ohio #issue1

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Or, if you’d rather not watch a video, my column this week also outlines all of the various attacks on democracy in Ohio:

The GOP's Ballot Measure Wars

As is the case in Virginia, activists on both sides of the issue are going to see the results in Ohio tonight as an indication of what works and what doesn’t work—and will export those strategies accordingly.

Remember: We need just over 50% of the vote to win tonight, and polls have been showing support for the measure at just under 60%. Early turnout has also been really strong, and the Associated Press reports that Ohio election officials expect a similarly big turnout today. They’re predicting that 40% to 50% of registered voters will participate, much higher numbers than other off-year elections.)

Kimberly Inez McGuire, executive director of URGE, says that pro-choice voters have been energized by Republicans’ transparent attacks on democracy: “Ohio voters really know what's at stake here, because they've seen the incredible lengths that the Ohio government will go to to interfere in people's lives.”

So for now, folks are feeling cautiously optimistic.

I’ll have more for you throughout the day, but now there’s an election day open thread for paying supporters. So if you’re looking for a place to commiserate with other abortion rights-obsessed folks, check it out below. (And if you haven’t upgraded your subscription yet, it’s a good time to do so: I’m running a discount until tomorrow.)

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