Abortion on the Ballot

Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania and more

This is a special addition/edition to the 11.2.23 issue of Abortion, Every Day.

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Since Roe was overturned, abortion has been winning election after election and terrifying Republicans in the process. In just a few short days, we’ll see if that streak continues. Multiple states have abortion on the ballot, explicitly or otherwise—and Abortion, Every Day will be paying close attention to every single one.

Ohio

In Ohio, voters will decide on Issue 1—a ballot measure to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. Since Roe was overturned, every abortion-related ballot measure has come down on the pro-choice side. That means Republicans are freaked out, Democrats are trying not to get overly-confident, and what happens on Tuesday will be seen as a bellwether for 2024. The night’s results will impact how both anti-abortion and pro-choice activists do their work moving forward. From Mini Timmaraju, president of Reproductive Freedom for All:

“When we’re able to see how our messaging impacts independents and Republicans and persuades them that this fundamental freedom is important to protect in Ohio, that’s going to be something that we can implement looking at 2024.”

For the amendment to pass, it needs over 50% of the vote, and recent polls show support for the measure as just under 60%. Folks on the ground seem to be cautiously optimistic, but (understandably) don’t want to take anything for granted.

The Associated Press reports that Ohio election officials expect a big turnout on Tuesday. They’re predicting that 40% to 50% of registered voters will participate—which is much higher than other off-year elections, and even higher than the strong turnout of August’s special election. Kimberly Inez McGuire, executive director of URGE, says that pro-choice voters have been energized by Republicans’ transparent attacks on democracy. That August special election, for example, was an attempt to raise the standards on ballot measures. Voters shot it down decisively.

“Ohio voters really know what's at stake here, because they've seen the incredible lengths that the Ohio government will go to to interfere in people's lives,” McGuire said.

This month, for example, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose purged nearly 30,000 Ohioans from the voting rolls. And earlier this year, Republicans and anti-abortion activists tried to stop the measure from getting to voters entirely by suing the state ballot board.

And while Republicans in the state weren’t able to stop the amendment entirely, or raise standards on ballot measures—they were able to insert a misleading and false ballot summary. The summary, which voters will see on Tuesday, uses language like ‘unborn child’ and says that the amendment “always allow an unborn child to be aborted at any stage of pregnancy, regardless of viability if, in the treating physician's determination, the abortion is necessary to protect the pregnant woman's life or health.” By using this kind of incendiary language, the hope is to trick voters out of supporting the amendment.

Ohio Northern University tested out the language in a poll a few weeks ago, giving respondents two versions of the proposed amendment: one that used the ballot summary language and the other that used just the language of the amendment itself:

“The version that included the language as it will appear on the ballot garnered 52 percent support, which could translate to a close election. But the version that used the language of the amendment itself garnered 68 percent. The poll also found that 65 percent of Ohio voters believe that abortions should be mostly legal.”

The New York Times also reports today on the ballot summary language—and the fear that confusion over the amendment could lead pro-choice voters to vote ‘no’ against the abortion rights measure.

In addition to the attacks on democracy, Ohioans have also been watching the GOP and anti-abortion activists spread absurd and dangerous lies about the amendment for months. They’ve claimed it would eradicate parental consent, for example, and allow abortion ‘up until birth’. Incredibly, an Associated Press investigation found that much of the misinformation was being published on a government-run website—which is prioritized in online searches because it’s run by the government.

Most recently, the Ohio GOP has said that voters don’t need the amendment at all, because abortion is legal in the state. What they haven’t mentioned, of course, is that Republicans passed a 6-week abortion ban that’s currently blocked. Without the protection of Issue 1, that ban could go into effect.

The tactics that Ohio Republicans have been using in the the lead-up to the election on Issue 1 are getting increasingly desperate. Jezebel has a slideshow of some of them—including assuring voters that they’d be open to rape and incest exceptions in future abortion bans. Which, of course, is bullshit. The 6-week ban passed by Republicans had no such exceptions, and Ohio conservatives talk in circles when they’re asked explicitly about rape and incest.

The press secretary for the anti-abortion group Protect Women Ohio, Amy Natoce, for example, told NPR, “What happened to that 10-year-old girl, let's be clear, was absolutely tragic, I think everybody can agree on that.” But when asked if the 10 year-old should have been able to get an abortion in Ohio, Natoce wouldn’t say: “That is up to the voters and the legislature to decide.” Okay, sure.

Also, we know exceptions aren’t real!

Abortion Exceptions Don't Exist

But the lies in Ohio don’t stop there: A few weeks ago, Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno said in a podcast that Issue 1 would allow a rapist to “force” a child to have an abortion: “As a dad of two girls, it’s about having that girl be able to be raped and having a rapist force her to have an abortion—all without your consent—as a minor.”

The Catholic Church has also been hyper-involved in campaigning against Issue 1, spending millions of dollars to support anti-abortion groups in the state, and telling parishioners they have to vote against the measure. (In response, Catholics for Choice launched a billboard campaign telling pro-choice Catholics “you are not alone.”)

All of which is to say: There is a lot going on in Ohio. The level of Republican interference in the democratic process is just astounding—even to this jaded feminist!

Virginia

Virginia is another state where the results are expected to tell a broader story on abortion rights—specifically, how Republicans should handle the issue moving forward. If you’re a regular reader, you know that the state GOP has been pushing hard on messaging that claims their proposed 15-week abortion ban is ‘not a ban’. Literally: they’re running ads with that tagline!

What’s been distressing is that some of the mainstream media is buying into this framing—adopting anti-abortion rhetoric by calling 15-week bans ‘limits’ and giving credence to the notion that maybe a law banning abortion isn’t a ban after all!

National anti-abortion groups like Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America have put lots of money and energy into this strategy, and are hoping that they convince voters that a 15-week ban is a ‘reasonable compromise’. But here’s the thing: We know they’re not going to stop at 15 weeks. On Monday, I reported that SBA Pro-Life America President Marjorie Dannenfelser gave a podcast interview to POLITICO where she made the end goal clear:

“What we want is to be as ambitious for life in every legislature that there is. So there's the national legislature—that includes California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Mexico—asking for a heartbeat bill or a life at conception.”

Fifteen weeks is just how they get voters to buy in. And Virginia Republicans are on the same page. In a secretly recorded moment, Republican state Senate candidate Tara Durant said she wants to ban abortion earlier than 15-weeks. “It depends on what makes it to the floor of the Senate and the House—if it will pass. That is why we are fighting to get as much as we can,” she said. (Similar sentiments from other Republicans in the state have also been caught on tape.)

So if Republicans gain control of both legislative chambers, abortion is on the chopping block and the last relatively safe haven for reproductive rights in the South will be gone. And as I reported earlier this week, the other big issue at play in Virginia is Gov. Glenn Youngkin possible presidential aspirations. If Youngkin brings home the election for the GOP, conservative donors are more likely to get behind the governor as a late entry into the presidential race.

Pennsylvania

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court race has become all about abortion—and an expensive one at that. The latest reports show spending for the race surpassing $17 million!

Democrat Dan McCaffery is running against Republican Carolyn Carluccio, who has been trying to distance herself from her anti-abortion extremism. Carluccio deleted language from her campaign website that called her a defender of “all life under the law,” and has accused the media of mischaracterizing her views. She claims that she’d “follow the law,” but of course that’s what they all said about Roe, too!

Although this race won’t immediately affect who controls the court majority, the liberal majority would be narrowed if Carluccio wins and Pennsylvania Democrats are taking the long view to protect abortion rights. They’re also hoping for a win similar to the one we saw in Wisconsin, where the Court make-up switched after a campaign hyper-focused on abortion rights.

Back in August, Democratic Rep. Brendan Boyle told POLITICO that abortion would be “the single biggest issue” in the race:

“Just a few months ago, in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, abortion was the single biggest reason why Democrats won by over 10 points. I could see something similar happening in Pa.”

Naturally, there are lots more states and races where abortion is playing a central role—like the Kentucky gubernatorial race for example. But I wanted to give an overview of just a few for now, with more to come in the next few days.

And remember, in all of these states, anti-abortion activists are hoping that Republican wins will mean something else beyond the ability to ban or further ban abortion: They want to shut Democrats the fuck up about abortion already. They’re really hoping that a few key wins will convince Democrats that abortion isn’t a winning issue after all—and that they should ease off the pro-choice talking points. After all, Dems saw abortion rights as a third rail issue for a long time; conservatives would love for it to go back to being just that.

Quick hits:

• The Columbus Dispatch talks to voters about how they’re feeling about Issue 1;

• The Akron Beacon Journal editorial board called out Republican lies about Issue 1;

• NPR on how what happens with Issue 1 will have a national impact;

• Ohio college students are campaigning for Issue 1;

• U.S. News has info on the 16 key races in Virginia;

• NBC News on the Virginia race and abortion;

• And Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s new abortion rights group has already spent $1.5 million in Ohio and Virginia.

Don’t forget to be on the lookout for the regular daily report this evening! And if you appreciate all the work that goes into bringing you independent feminist news on abortion, consider singing up for a paid subscription: