Abortion, Every Day (11.6.23)

Anti-abortion groups are preparing for losses tomorrow

Click to skip ahead in the newsletter: Abortion on the Ballot gives a rundown of what to watch out for tomorrow, along with a telling quote from an anti-abortion leader. In What Conservatives Are Saying, a Virginia Republican’s rhetorical tricks demonstrates just how scared the GOP is of abortion. In the States, Missouri gubernatorial candidate Jay Ashcroft says he’ll quit if voters enshrine abortion rights. In the Nation, Republican Speaker Mike Johnson refuses to say whether or not he wants to ban birth control. And What to Watch reminds you to check out John Oliver’s segment on abortion rights and the election.

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Abortion on the Ballot

Election day is nearly here, and I’m betting you’re all as nervous as I am. There’s a lot on the line tomorrow—and not just in individual states. The results in Virginia, for example, will determine abortion access for the entire region: The state is the last relatively safe haven in the South. And in both Virginia and Ohio, anti-abortion activists are testing out messaging and strategies that they hope to carry through into 2024.

Remember, Republicans want wins in these states not only to protect their bans—but to convince Democrats that their hyper-focus on abortion isn’t a winning strategy. But as Matthew Hildreth, executive director of Rural Organizing, told The Washington Post, “these days, abortion is one of the only policies that’s actually moving voters.”

That’s why Republicans are spending so much time misrepresenting what their policies would actually do. In an interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on Sunday, for example, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin went beyond his usual talking points about 15 weeks being a “reasonable” compromise. He straight up lied:

“I think this is a choice between no limits and reasonable limits, and I think this is one where Virginians come together around reasonableness. This is a place we can come together and settle on a very difficult topic.”

Youngkin has absolutely no intention of “settling” or stopping at 15 weeks. He knows it, and has said as much in the past. In 2022, for example, the Virginia governor said that he would “happily and gleefully” sign “any bill that comes to my desk…in order to protect life.” Youngkin has also talked about believing that life begins at conception, and has promised to “protect the life of every Virginia child born and unborn.” That’s not someone who is going to stop at a 15-week ban!

Not to mention, it was just last week that Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, admitted to POLITICO that a 15-week ban was just a starting point—a way to ease Americans into a total ban: “What we want is to be as ambitious for life in every legislature that there is…asking for a heartbeat bill or a life at conception.” SBA Pro-Life America is spending millions on the ground in Virginia; they’re not making that kind of investment just to stop at 15-weeks!

Speaking of the anti-abortion powerhouse, some good news for us: It looks as if they’re preparing for bad news tomorrow. Dannenfelser did some preemptive messaging at The Wall Street Journal:

“We’ve never been good at the state level. We have a very diverse country. It makes sense that each state deciding what to do about abortion will be a cumbersome process with fits and starts.”

Love to see it! Pro-choice groups, however, are hoping that successes in Ohio and Virginia will make it even more clear that abortion is a winning issue. On a press call last week, Mini Timmaraju, president of Reproductive Freedom for All, said they’re hoping to come out of the two states “with a clear national message that abortions on the ballot wins, that voters are smart and don’t try to fool them and trick them.”

That hasn’t stopped Republicans like Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine from lying about the pro-choice amendment down to the last minute. DeWine went on Fox News this weekend to claim that the proposed amendment is “radical,” that it “goes much much too far,” and that it would “enshrine in our Constitution the right to have an abortion up until birth.”

Pro-choice activists are also doing as much last-minute work as possible: Jaime Miracle, deputy director of Pro Choice Ohio, told Agence France-Presse, “We're going to canvass until the very last second...calling and knocking on as many doors and talking to every single voter.”

We’re also paying close attention to Pennsylvania, where abortion has taken center stage in the state Supreme Court election; and Kentucky, where the gubernatorial race has also become very much about abortion. Law professor and friend-of-Abortion, Every Day, David Cohen, points out that the focus on abortion in a state like Kentucky demonstrates just how politically powerful the issue is:

“[Abortion] is such a motivating issue for people that even in a state where abortion is banned and the governor is not going to change the fact that abortion is banned.”

Quick his:

• At The New York Times, one of the activists behind Ohio’s Issue 1 writes about Republicans’ incessant attacks against the measure;

• Axios has a decent breakdown of the states to pay attention to, along with data on spending and quotes from activists on both sides;

• The American Prospect asks if Virginia college students will come out to vote;

• And the Associated Press with races to watch on abortion rights.

If you missed my column earlier today about Republicans’ war on democracy, check it out below:

The GOP's Ballot Measure Wars

What Conservatives Are Saying

Since Roe was overturned, conservatives have been playing down their extremism with some pretty clever rhetorical tricks: They’re trying to do away with the word ‘ban’, paint 15-week bans as ‘consensus’ legislation, and have been patting themselves on the back for being ‘reasonable’ by supporting exceptions that don’t really exist.

One of my favorite newer tactics, however, is the way that lawmakers are reframing abortion bans to sound downright pro-choice. Leading the charge on this strategy is state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, a Virginia Republican running for reelection. Dunnavant has the nerve to describe a 15-week abortion ban as a “proposal to keep abortion legal.”

Dunnavant, who has also been running ads claiming “it’s not a ban,” told NPR today, “I think we should keep abortion legal with enough time for a woman to have the opportunity to consider her choices.”

Imagine proposing an abortion ban by telling voters it’s a plan to keep abortion legal!

In the States

Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft has been trying to stymie a pro-choice ballot measure in the state—most recently by crafting a false and incendiary ballot summary designed to trick voters out of supporting the amendment. Ashcroft is one of the many conservative leaders who wants to keep voters as far away from abortion rights as possible. Today, the Republican—who is running for governor—said that if elected, he’d quit if voters enshrined abortion rights in the state constitution.

Ashcroft told reporters, “When I take an oath, I will follow it, and if it is incompatible with my moral beliefs, then I would have to quit.” YOU PROMISE??

Thanks to a decision from asshole Judge Matthew Kacmsaryk nearly a year ago, if teenagers in Texas visit a federally-funded clinic, they’re no longer able to confidentially obtain contraception without their parents being notified. Yesterday, the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals heard arguments in the case—which is being led by Jonathan Mitchell, architect of the state’s bounty hunter mandate and all-around nightmare person.

Given the conservative make-up of the 5th Circuit, this should be no surprise: The three judges seemed to support Kacmsaryk’s ruling and Mitchell’s argument, with one calling the Title X program a “destruction” of parental rights.

Speaking of moral panics, conservatives are attacking a resident advisor at Ohio’s Miami University for sending out an “overly provocative” email promoting a safe sex program. Here’s the entirety of the supposedly-inappropriate message, which was sent right around Halloween:

"You're missing this SPOOKY SEX that's happening in the Emerson Hall Basement RIGHT NOW! Cum enjoy some free pizza and contraceptives and compete for the chance to win some sex toys! See you soon!”

This was a message sent to adult college students. Who apparently shouldn’t be told about birth control, and definitely shouldn’t be told about orgasms.

New Jersey has launched a new website to help people find abortion care resources. Led by First Lady Tammy Murphy, the site provides information about abortion, insurance coverage, birth control, sterilization and more. “This site is going to provide a summary of actions taken to basically protect and advance reproductive freedoms in New Jersey. It’s important to make sure everyone knows what their rights are,” Murphy says.

In Massachusetts this weekend, a group of anti-abortion men held a march in Boston. I just wanted to point out this telling bit of reporting from The Boston Globe: “The protesters included at least two men wearing the logo of the white supremacist group Patriot Front.” Sounds about right!

Quick hits:

• A new poll out of Kansas shows that 63% of respondents either agreed or strongly agreed that women are better suited than politicians to decide whether or not they get an abortion;

• And Idaho’s Attorney General says that despite a law dictating that state employees who “promote” abortion be punished by up to 14 years in prison, professors at the state college shouldn’t worry because it only applies to some circumstances. What a relief!

In the Nation

Newly-elected Republican Speaker Mike Johnson refuses to say whether or not he believes birth control should be illegal—a dodge that makes it pretty easy to guess his answer!

In an interview with Fox News, Johnson was asked about a statement from EMILY’s List accusing him of wanting to criminalize IVF treatments and certain types of birth control.  Host Shannon Bream asked, “Is that an accurate assessment of where you are? Because that’s not in step with the American people.”

Johnson replied, “I’m pro-life...I believe in the sanctity of every single human life,” and then tried to pivot as quickly as possible. When Bream brought it back to birth control—asking Johnson if he’s ever voted against contraception or IVF, and if he ever would—the Speaker said he didn’t remember. 

This is a good time to remind you of this Rolling Stone exposé detailing Johnson’s long-standing crusade against contraception. Reporter Tessa Stuart points out that his stance against birth control utilizes the exact strategy Abortion, Every Day has been warning about: falsely characterizing certain kinds of contraception as ‘abortifacients’. In one 2013 panel, for example, Johnson said as clear as day: “The morning after pill, as we know, is an abortifacient.” 

In a moment when Republicans are trying to prove that they’re not misogynist extremists, they’re going to have a really hard time excusing Johnson and his record here. 

Meanwhile, Johnson is going to be pretty busy in the next few weeks—with the deadline for spending bills fast approaching. Johnson needs to prevent a government shutdown in less than two weeks, and has struggled to find consensus among his party. Republicans have inserted anti-abortion riders into spending bills—which Democrats have made clear are dead-ends, and moderate Republican lawmakers have been pushing back against. (This is a great explainer on what his GOP hard-line strategy looks like). We’ll keep you updated as things continue to develop.

Republican infighting continues this week over Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s block on hundreds of military promotions over the Pentagon’s abortion policy. Senate Republicans are putting pressure on Tuberville over his ‘protest’, and have set a Tuesday afternoon special conference to discuss the months-long derailment. POLITICO reports that the party will suggest releasing uniformed officers from the hold (shifting Tuberville’s block solely to civilian nominees), or bringing the abortion policy to court. 

This comes after a group of Republican Senators publicly admonished the freshman senator and attempted to confirm 61 military promotions in a rare clash in the chamber last week. Tuberville has shown no sign of relenting and one of this staffers contacted anti-abortion groups recently, asking them for support. Specifically, the email asked that the orgs threaten any Republicans who work against Tuberville with primary challenges. Family Research Council and Students for Life, two powerful anti-abortion groups, have already agreed to help.

Meanwhile, Democrats are making moves to bring a potential resolution to the Senate floor that temporarily bypasses Tuberville’s hold. The resolution, which would need bipartisan support, allows for groupings of military promotions to be confirmed by the year-end. No Republican Senators have endorsed the temporary rule change in public yet. 

Quick hits:

• Senate Republicans are already warning the new Speaker to stay away from any abortion policies before the 2024 election, which are the policies that have defined his career so far;

• The Johnson team sent out one of their first fundraising pitches with the typo, “I refuse to put people over politics” (or was it?);

• And the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals hears oral arguments this week over federal guidance on emergency abortion services.

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What to Watch

I haven’t watched this in its entirety yet, but I’ve heard good things: John Oliver took on abortion rights ahead of tomorrow’s election, giving a look at the landscape and explaining the importance of voting—especially right now.

Finally, one more thing to watch: I’ll be on MSNBC tomorrow in the 9PM hour, doing some election analysis with Alex Wagner. I’ll shout out with a more precise time when I have it, but mark your calendars now if you want to see me revved up on too much coffee and rage.

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Thanks to Abortion, Every Day researcher Grace Haley for writing today’s In the Nation section.