What to Watch for in Tonight's Debate

6.27.24

Click to skip ahead: Another look at the leaked SCOTUS Ruling. In the States, news from South Carolina, Idaho, Tennessee, Kentucky and more. In Ballot Measure Updates, Republicans are confusing voters with a fake ‘pro-choice’ measure. In the Nation, some quick hits. In 2024 news, we’re prepping for tonight’s debate. Finally, Stats & Studies looks at research showing anti-abortion states have seen a decrease in birth control use

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SCOTUS Ruling

Everyone is still buzzing over the accidentally-leaked SCOTUS decision on emergency abortions—namely the fact that we didn’t get a final answer. That means American women will have to sit and wait around, again, to find out if hospital emergency rooms can refuse to give us life-saving care. I think Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson’s scathing opinion said it all: “[F]or as long as we refuse to declare what the law requires, pregnant patients in Idaho, Texas, and elsewhere will be paying the price.”

As Amy Hagstrom Miller of Whole Woman’s Health told CNN, this case isn’t just about hospitals in Idaho–but everywhere.

“This is really something that all eyes and ears are watching from multiple states across the country to try to figure out what we’re able to do to provide basic health care, even if abortion has been restricted.”

Anti-abortion groups, on the other hand, have responded to the decision with a sort of collective shrug. Katie Daniel, state policy director for Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, called the ruling a “setback,” but said “we are confident Idaho will eventually prevail on the merits of this case.”

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If you missed my explainer yesterday on EMTALA and the leaked decision, you can read it here:

Why the Leaked SCOTUS Ruling Isn't a Victory

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In the States

In the wake of the Supreme Court leak, Idaho Democrats are speaking up about the consequences of the state’s ban. Democratic Party Chair Lauren Necochea called her state a “terrifying cautionary tale for our nation.”

“Our small state has lost nearly a quarter of our OBGYNs, over half our maternal and fetal medicine specialists, and three labor and delivery wards.”

All anti-abortion states are seeing an exodus of OBGYNs (and the inability to recruit new ones), but Idaho has been particularly hard-hit.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is still out there talking about how extreme his state’s abortion ban is. Beshear has been lobbying to add exceptions for rape, incest and nonviable pregnancies to the state’s law—with little success, unfortunately. The Democratic governor has been working with Haldey Duvall, who appeared in a powerful ad credited with winning Beshear re-election. Duvall spoke about being raped and impregnated as a child, an emotional spot that kicked off a trend of Democrats using women’s personal stories in campaign ads.

Beshear spoke this week about the way these stories are resonating with voters:

“I can tell you it works, because I was a Democrat running in Kentucky that ran ads on this issue in this election. One of the reasons we were able to do that is people were brave enough to stand up and tell their story.”

Remember the three Republican women who tried to stop South Carolina’s abortion ban? Well, they’ve all been ousted by male opponents—payback for successfully blocking a total abortion ban three times before a 6-week ban was enacted. The men replacing Penry Gustafson, Sandy Senn and Katrina Shealy all support a total abortion ban.

The New York Times reports on how nasty the campaigns got, with Shealy sharing that protesters “picketed her church, slashed a tire on her car and fired shots from a pellet gun through her sunroom window.”

Their losses mean that next session there will be no Republican women in the South Carolina Senate. And according to Shealy, that’s not an accident. She told local station WIS News 10 that there were rumblings that male legislators were working behind-the-scenes to remove all Republican women from the Senate:

“Another thing that worries me is that there’s been rumors and texts and voicemails, and all these things, about ‘lets get rid of all the women, the republican women in the senate.’ Well by god, they did it. They did what they wanted.”

Remember: the abortion ban in South Carolina was put through by an all-male state Supreme Court. So it doesn’t shock me in the least that male lawmakers would be talking explicitly about getting rid of any women they could. Still, very scary shit.

I appreciated this op-ed from a North Carolina OBGYN who reminds us the dangers of abortion bans aren’t limited to physical threats to women’s health. From Dr. Julius Mallette:

“Living under an abortion ban can be an immense source of stress for my patients. My patients who are pregnant or of reproductive age are fearful of what will happen to them while they are living under these cruel bans, which have led to ambiguity and chaos when it comes to seeking care, even in a life-threatening emergency. We know that stress itself can be the cause of many health concerns, especially during pregnancy.”

It makes sense that we dedicate a lot of conversation and coverage to the horrific physical health consequences of abortion bans; but there’s not enough conversation about the emotional and mental impact of living in a place where you know you won’t be treated as a full human being.

Ohio Democrats are working to enact the protections of Issue 1, which enshrined abortion rights in the state constitution. The Center Square reports that Democrats have introduced legislation to protect IVF, a bill to add data privacy protections for abortion patients and doctors, and legislation to repeal TRAP laws and a waiting period.

Some fantastic news out of Michigan, where a court has done away with the state’s 24-hour waiting period! Court of Claims Judge Sima Patel ruled that the mandate violated Michigan’s new constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights, saying it “exacerbates the burdens that patients experience seeking abortion care.”

Patel’s injunction also blocked two other anti-abortion laws: The state’s “informed consent” law, which required doctors to give women inaccurate information about abortion; and a ban on advanced practice clinicians providing abortions. That means other kinds of health care providers—like nurse practitioners and physician assistants—will now be able to give care. In her ruling, Patel wrote that restriction “excludes qualified clinicians from providing abortion care without any medical justification.”

These changes are extraordinarily important—especially for the people traveling to Michigan from anti-abortion states. The waiting period made it more difficult for out-of-state patients to seek care in Michigan, knowing they’d have to take multiple days off from work. And the ban on advanced practice clinicians providing abortions was exacerbating OBGYNs’ overwhelm (something we’re seeing a lot of in pro-choice states).

Rabia Muqaddam, senior staff attorney at the Center for Reproductive Rights, called the decision a “game changer,” adding, “Michigan voters made it clear that access to abortion is a fundamental right in their state and must be free from ideological interference.”

It’s possible for Patel’s ruling to be appealed, but for the time being this is just great. Huge congrats to Michigan and all the folks who worked to make this happen!

Keeping with the good news, let’s talk about Delaware: This week the state Senate approved a bill that would require both private insurers and the Delaware Medicaid program to cover abortions. (There’s an exemption for religious employers.)

House Majority Leader Melissa Minor-Brown said, “Abortion is healthcare…yet the financial constraints and stigma associated with abortion services act as enormous barriers to actually accessing them.” The legislation is now heading to Democratic Gov. John Carney.

Quick hits:

• Vanity Fair and The New York Times on the infant mortality increase in Texas;

• A Missouri organization is sending out thousands of emergency contraception kits;

• And two bits of news out of Pennsylvania: the state has seen a big increase in out-of-state abortion patients; and where the state House has passed a bill this week to protect birth control this week.

Ballot Measure Updates

Back in April, I warned you about a new Republican strategy to stop voters from protecting abortion in their state constitutions: fake ‘pro-choice’ ballot measures.

Essentially, Republicans know that voters overwhelmingly want abortion to be legal; so in states where abortion is on the ballot, conservative lawmakers and organizations are creating their own feminist-sounding ballot measures to trick voters. It’s a way to drive support away from legitimate amendments and to mislead voters into enshrining abortion restrictions.

Take what’s happening in Nebraska, where a pro-choice group called Protect Our Rights launched a ballot initiative to protect abortion until ‘viability.’ Not too long ago, anti-abortion groups launched their own amendment with a very similar-sounding name, Protect Women and Children.

The conservative measure would supposedly allow abortion in the first trimester, but Nebraska already has 12-week ban—that means this ballot measure would codify a Republican ban into the state constitution, making it virtually repeal-proof.

Unfortunately, it appears that the tactic has been working. The Lincoln Journal-Star reports that at least three dozen voters in the state have submitted requests to remove their signatures from the anti-abortion “Protect Women and Children” petition. It’s a clear sign that folks are signing the petition not understanding that it would enshrine an abortion ban.

All of this is happening at the same time that anti-abortion groups are launching harassment campaigns against pro-choice petitioners, and sending misleading texts to voters to keep them from supporting abortion rights.

I’ve said it a million times, and I’ll say it a million more: If they really thought this was a ‘pro-life’ country, they wouldn’t need to lie to Americans.

In the Nation

• National Abortion Federation president Brittany Fonteno writes in US News about abortion rights post-Dobbs;

• USA Today on how each state has changed since Dobbs;

• U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra was in Idaho this week, learning about the consequences of the state ban;

• CBS News with new numbers on how voters are thinking about abortion and the presidential race;

• A Wisconsin PAC put out an ad highlighting that Trump has called for women to be punished for having abortions;

• And Liz Plank takes us inside crisis pregnancy centers.

2024

The first presidential debate is tonight and I am really not looking forward to watching two old men debate abortion. I think it’s fair to say that this is going to be a shitshow. I just hope it’s a shitshow that trends in our general direction.

Some things to watch out for:

Donald Trump will swing between extremist talking points and seemingly-moderate messaging. He’ll start by taking credit for the end of Roe, claiming that he generously gave the issue back to the states—where voters can now supposedly decide whatever they want. Don’t be surprised if he brings up Ohio’s Issue 1, and says that the only reason the state was able to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitution was because of him.

Trump will also talk about the ‘three exceptions’ and how important it is not to be too radical, even as he launches into some nonsense about ‘post-birth’ abortion and claiming that Democrats allow newborns to be killed.

Here’s what I’m looking for from moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash:

• That they’ll put a quick end to the talk about ‘post-birth’ abortion strongly and clearly. They can’t allow that sort of messaging to stand without an unequivocal on-air fact-check.

• I want them to ask Trump about the fact that exceptions aren’t usable. For example, Mississippi has a rape exception in theory, but there’s not one doctor who will give a victim an abortion. And in Iowa, doctors are expected to judge whether a rape victim is telling the truth or not, and if her attack is “prosecutable.”

• And, of course, I hope they’ll ask Trump about the Comstock Act, emergency contraception, abortion medication, and all of the other issues he keeps trying to run from.

When it comes to President Joe Biden, I don’t expect much—I just would like for him to use the word ‘abortion’ and try to come across more enthusiastic than he has in the past. We all know he’s not an abortion fan, but he needs to become one, quickly.

In related news, Biden’s campaign plans to air an ad about abortion rights during the debate, CNN reports. You can watch it below:

Stats & Studies

A new study finds that after Roe was overturned, states with abortion bans and restrictions saw a drop in prescriptions for birth control pills and emergency contraception. (Emergency contraception is available over-the-counter but researchers looked at the medication that was processed by a pharmacy.)

Researchers suggest the drop in contraceptive use has to do with reproductive health clinics being shut down in anti-abortion states, and confusion over whether emergency contraception is legal. Remember, a recent poll found that 73% of Americans believe that emergency contraception can end a pregnancy.

I’m also willing to bet some of those decreases have to do with the insidious conservative cultural campaign against hormonal birth control that tells young women they’re ‘poisoning’ their bodies. This is something I’ve been tracking for a while—the connection between so-called health influencers and conservative anti-choice groups.

No matter the reason, the trend is worrying. Dima Qato, senior author and the director of the University of Southern California’s Program on Medicines and Public Health, told NBC News, “It’s important to show that restrictive environments around reproductive health…impact access to contraception and threaten a woman’s right to reproductive choice.”