Trump's Abortion Announcement
It doesn't mean shit
We knew that this was coming. Abortion rights is a winning issue and Donald Trump likes to win. That’s why the disgraced former president announced today that he believes abortion should be left to the states:
“The states will determine by vote or legislation or perhaps both, and whatever they decide must be the law of the land…Many states will be different. Many will have a different number of weeks, or some will [be] more conservative than others, and that’s what they will be. At the end of the day, this is all about the will of the people.”
Trump can see the writing on the wall; he knows Republicans’ abortion extremism is losing them election after election. He thinks by washing his hands of the situation, he can avoid some of that post-Roe backlash.
This is pretty much what I predicted would happen back in November—that he would try to have it both ways by claiming responsibility for the end of Roe, and saying he oh-so-generously gave the choice back to the states. From my column:
“What better way to appease Republican women who have been horrified by all the post-Roe horror stories they’ve been reading? By focusing on returning abortion to the states—applauding whatever outcome once that happens—Trump is giving those female voters a gift: The illusion that that they still have a choice.”
I also pointed out—and I think this stands—that while anti-abortion groups will see this as noncommittal, that apathy is going to be politically advantageous with Republican women. (I think often of this quote from a Pennsylvania woman in The New York Times: “I haven’t seen Trump say something either way on abortion; he doesn’t seem to care either way and that’s fine with me.”)
The thing that’s most important to know is that this ‘announcement’ doesn’t mean shit—at least, not in terms of how dangerous another Trump presidency would be. Conservatives’ abortion plan for a second Trump administration has never been reliant on a national ban, because they know they might not be able to get the votes. Instead, the focus is on using control of the FDA and the DOJ to implement backdoor bans.
By replacing the head of the FDA, a Trump administration would rescind approval of mifepristone, one of the two medications used to end a pregnancy. With the DOJ, they’d ensure that the Comstock Act, the 19th century zombie law that makes it illegal to ship ‘obscene’ materials, would be used to stop the mailing of abortion medication or supplies. (That’s not a political prediction, by the way—it’s a plan conservatives have explicitly laid out in Project 2025.)
As Jonathan Mitchell, the architect of the Texas abortion ban and a powerful anti-choice activist, said in February, “We don’t need a federal ban when we have Comstock on the books…There’s a smorgasbord of options.”
That doesn’t mean anti-choice groups aren’t pissed off by Trump’s refusal to publicly support a federal abortion ban—they very much are. Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, said the group is “deeply disappointed.”
“Unborn children and their mothers deserve national protections and national advocacy from the brutality of the abortion industry. The Dobbs decision clearly allows both states and Congress to act. Saying the issue is ‘back to the states’ cedes the national debate to the Democrats…”
And while Dannenfelser said last year that her organizations would “oppose any presidential candidate who refuses to embrace at a minimum a 15-week national [ban],” she said today that they’ll “work tirelessly to defeat President Biden and extreme congressional Democrats” despite Trump’s announcement.
Kristan Hawkins, president of Students for Life, also got in line behind the former president, writing on Twitter that she didn’t like the proposed 15-week national ban anyway, since it “would have embraced more than 9 in 10 abortions.”
Naturally, Democrats are accusing Trump of lying; U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine, for example, correctly points out that Trump would absolutely sign a national ban if it came across his desk. President Joe Biden released a statement that said the same, along with tying Trump to Florida’s 6-week ban:
“Trump once said women must be punished for seeking reproductive health care—and he’s gotten his wish. Women are being turned away from emergency rooms, forced to go to court to seek permission for the medical attention they need, and left to travel hundreds of miles for health care. In states like Florida, abortion will likely soon be illegal before many women know they’re pregnant.”
I think it’s smart to link Trump’s statement to Florida’s ban, and to hone in on how proud he is of Roe’s demise—but it would be even smarter to start talking about Comstock and all the other ways a Trump presidency could ban abortion. Voters need to know the dirty details.
What I’m most worried about, though, is the media response: Trump is relying on mainstream publications taking the bait and painting this announcement as evidence that he’s taking a moderate position. Remember when Trump went on “Meet the Press” and insisted that abortion providers “kill the baby after birth” seven different times, just to have the headline declare that he wanted to “bring the country together” on abortion? I do! Let’s make sure that doesn’t happen again.
At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter what Trump says about a national abortion ban, or leaving the issue to the states—if he’s elected, he’ll give anti-choice groups exactly what they want. And there’s no talking point, messaging or ‘announcement’ that will change that fact.
Even if it wasn't complete and utter bullshit, on it's face it's an absurd statement. "We think all men are created equal and women's rights should be whatever her State says." "We think that's it's fine for men to get a universal standard of care, but standards for women's health should really depend on where she lives."
Reminding everyone that I write a Substack and post 5 times a week about Project 2025. And I will type this again for those in the back: The Comstock Act could be used to ban ALL CONTRACEPTION. Not merely abortion pills and supplies. Comstock considered ALL contraception "obscene."