The Abortion Election Is Almost Here

10.28.24

Click to skip ahead: In The Abortion Election, a look at how the Harris campaign is going all in on abortion in the last days before the election. Language Matters looks at Trump’s shifting messaging on abortion and the difference AED is making in the media. In the States, news from Nebraska, New York, Iowa and more. Ballot Measure Updates in New York, Missouri, Maryland, Florida, and Arizona. 2024 news looks at “ghost voters,” and a bit of shameless self-promotion. In the Nation, some quick hits. Finally, in New Merch Alert—we have stickers!

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The Abortion Election

Let’s talk about Kamala Harris and abortion. The campaign has been going all in on on abortion in these last days before the election—from Friday’s rally in Houston and that powerful ad to Michelle Obama’s incredible speech.

It’s a marker of how much has changed since Roe was overturned. I mean truly, if someone would have told you two years ago that the Democratic presidential nominee would give speech about abortion in Texas with just days to go until the election, would you have believed them?

Part of the focus on abortion is because the Harris campaign believes there’s an untapped demographic of women voters who don’t necessarily understand that Donald Trump is anti-abortion. I know, I know—but leave aside how mind-boggling it is that a voter wouldn’t know that about Trump. Harris’ campaign can see that when voters are made aware of Trump’s anti-abortion bonafides, it makes a difference.

That’s why the vice president hammered the point home in her CBS Evening News interview this weekend. When asked about the fact that Trump says he’d veto a national ban, for example, this is how Harris responded:

“He says everything—come on, are we really taking his word for it? He said that women should be punished. He has been all over the place on this. But I'm too busy watching what he's doing to see what he has said."

Even what Trump says, though, is pretty fucking bad! That’s why Michelle Obama’s speech in Michigan was so perfect and powerful. It wasn’t just that she called on men to step up—which was vital on its own—but that she honed in on Trump’s clear disdain for women:

“So please, please do not hand our fates over to the likes of Trump, who knows nothing about us, who has shown a deep contempt for us. Because a vote for him is a vote against us, against our health, against our worth.”

That really is the heart of the matter: Because this election isn’t just about getting men to vote for us, but getting them to stop voting against us. This is why I wrote a column this summer asking where “the protectors” were: We’ve seen the gender gap in the polls, and it’s infuriating to know that so many men—husbands, fathers, and sons—would align themselves with a man who treats women as if they’re less than human.

And while Michelle Obama didn’t say men should be ashamed for voting for Trump, the implication (to me, at least) was clear. It was this line, in particular, that had me standing and cheering:

“To anyone out there thinking about sending out this election or voting for Donald Trump or a third-party candidate in protest because you’re fed up, let me warn you: Your rage does not exist in a vacuum. If we don’t win this election, your wife, your daughter, your mother, we as women will become collateral damage to your rage.” 

Watch her speech here or read an excerpt here.

A final note about Harris’ ramped up focus on abortion: One of the remarkable things about her speech on Friday is that she called things what they were. For example, Harris mentioned the fact that several Texas counties have passed travel bans—and she called them travel bans. That is no small thing.

If you’re a regular reader, you know better than anyone that anti-abortion activists and organizations rely on shady language—and that they’re depending on their bullshit messaging about ‘anti-trafficking’ ordinances becoming the norm. Harris is making clear she’s not falling for it.

Language Matters

We’re not done talking about language yet! The New York Times has an interesting interactive piece up today looking at the language Donald Trump has used on abortion rights, and how it’s shifted right along with the political winds. For example, Trump has only referred to himself as ‘pro-life’ once this year, and mentioned support for a federal ban once—as opposed to mentioning the same 50 times last year. They also tracked a massive increase in how many times Trump mentioned abortion ban ‘exceptions.’ Definitely worth checking out.

I also want to give ourselves a pat on the back: Every day I see more proof of how Abortion, Every Day’s work on Republicans’ sneaky terminology has shifted mainstream media coverage. Sticking with the Times for a moment—remember that it wasn’t so long ago that we had to pressure the publication to stop reporting that JD Vance opposes a national abortion ban.

That’s because reporters didn’t understand that when Vance said he supports a ‘minimum national standard,’ he was talking about a national abortion ban. Thanks to newsletter’s relentless focus on the issue—and this community’s support in getting the word out—we were able to get a correction.

Just as great: Last week, the Times finally explained how Republicans are using the term ‘minimum national standard’ and asked the Trump campaign how he distinguishes between the term and an abortion ‘ban.’ A spokesperson simply responded: “He will not support a federal abortion ban.” That tells you everything you need to know.

All of which is to say: We’re making a difference, so let’s keep it up!

In the States

It’s been three months since Iowa enacted its 6-week abortion ban, and healthcare providers are speaking up about the impact the law has had on patients. Planned Parenthood announced in a press conference this week that there’s been a “huge drop” in the number of Iowans being served. From Kristina Remus, a patient services advocate:

“We are extremely limited in the patients that we can see in Iowa. Most are forced to seek care in other neighboring states, including Minnesota, Nebraska and Illinois.”

Meanwhile, Nebraska has put out a health alert claiming that the state’s abortion ban is perfectly safe. The alert came from Dr. Timothy Tesmer, the chief medical officer of the state health department, who said he wanted to clarify they law because there are radio and television ads that include “incorrect and misleading information.”

It was just last week that Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen held a press conference with Tesmer and a gaggle of anti-abortion extremist doctors to do the same—insist that the state’s ban doesn’t put anyone’s health or life in jeopardy.

It’s not a coincidence that this urgent health alert comes just days before Nebraskans will vote on abortion rights. Republicans are trying their damndest to make voters believe that they have no need to enshrine abortion protections in the state constitution.

Something noteworthy: Nebraska’s health alert marks the second time that Republican leadership there has followed in the anti-abortion footsteps of Florida. Like Pillen, Gov. Ron DeSantis also held a press tour last week with extremist doctors to claim the state’s 6-week ban was safe. And last month, the state’s Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA) sent out an ‘alert’ to the medical community warning of “misinformation.”

We’ve also seen South Dakota do something similar: Remember the truly bizarre video released by the state health department that claimed to help doctors figure out when they’re allowed to save women’s lives?

In better news: It’s the one year anniversary of New York City making abortion medication available via telehealth. We were the first public health system in the country to do so!

NYC Health + Hospitals says that in the last year, they’ve provided thousands of virtual visits—with the average wait time coming in at less than 7 minutes—and that they’ve mailed over 800 abortion medication kits. More of this please! We need increased access to abortion medication everywhere, even in pro-choice states like New York.

“Instead of providing needed medical treatment, my colleagues and I would find ourselves discussing, ‘Did she need to have a 30% chance of death or irreversible harm? Or does it need to be at least 50%?’”

- Tennessee OBGYN Nikki Zite in a must-read piece about her work post-Dobbs

Ballot Measure Updates

I know nothing should surprise me anymore, but this sign really does take the cake. Shared by a Twitter user, it reveals how Republicans are fighting New York’s abortion rights ballot measure: They’re simply lying to voters.

For voters who have no idea that Prop 1 is an abortion rights measure and that this phrase is an anti-trans dog whistle, “protect girls sports” sounds downright terrific!

The good news is that this kind of messaging shows just how desperate Republicans are and how badly they’re losing on abortion rights. In many states where abortion is on the ballot, they’re not even bothering arguing the issue anymore—just pivoting. The bad news, of course, is that in too many cases, voters believe them. And I am really concerned that not enough New Yorkers know about Prop 1; I would be devastated if it was my home state that broke abortion rights’ winning ballot measure streak.

But again, this isn’t just happening in New York. You all know this has been a Republican tactic in every state where abortion is on the ballot. Carter Sherman at The Guardian gets into that strategy this week, looking at how conservatives are using ‘parental rights’ and anti-trans messaging to fight against pro-choice ballot measures.

In Missouri, for example, the anti-abortion campaign opposing Amendment 3 claimed this week that the measure allows for ‘abortions up until birth,’ eradicates parental consent, and that the measure has a “provider immunity clause.” In other words, they’re saying patients won’t be able to hold abortion providers liable for malpractice. It’s pure absurdity.

In pro-choice states like Maryland, anti-abortion groups aren’t arguing against the pro-choice measure as much as they’re claiming it’s not necessary. In an op-ed this week, two anti-abortion activists claim that voters don’t have to worry because “nothing has changed” in the state since Roe was overturned.

We’ve seen this argument before in pro-choice states, but I wanted to flag this column for a particular reason: the president of Democrats for Life of America, Kristen Day, was a co-author on the piece. That means we’re getting a hint at what kind of national anti-abortion messaging we might be seeing more of soon. Indeed, Day writes in the op-ed that Republicans don’t really want to target abortion at all anymore—even nationally:

“On a national level, and on a state level, there are no plans or paths to enact any federal limitation on abortion. The votes aren’t there. And Republicans weakened protection of life from its platform priorities. They don’t have the appetite to engage.”

It’s wild that they think Americans will buy it. Still, I’m willing to bet we’ll see this claim start to gain steam as an anti-abortion message: The GOP will insist that they’re backing off abortion rights, even as they enact ever-sneakier restrictions.

Finally, let’s take a brief look at how pro-choice amendments are doing in the polls: Polls for Florida’s Amendment 4 continue to go up and down—largely, I imagine, thanks to the multi-million dollar state-led campaign opposing the measure. For more on the attacks against in Florida, check out this Teen Vogue interview with Lauren Brenzel, the campaign director for Amendment 4.

In South Dakota, a new poll shows that support for Amendment G has slipped slightly. Finally, Arizona voters seem poised to pass a constitutional protection for abortion rights, dismissing Republicans’ insistence that the state’s 15-week ban is a ‘reasonable compromise.’

Related: Rolling Stone asks whether support for Arizona’s abortion rights measure will drive votes for Democrats—or if the ability to vote for abortion access will make some Republicans and independents more comfortable supporting Trump because they’ll be less worried about reproductive rights.

Quick hits: WFSU reports on Republican women who are supporting Florida’s Amendment 4; Missouri doctors are canvassing for the pro-choice measure there; and what’s next for abortion in Ohio now that the state’s ban has been struck down.

2024

I told you earlier in the newsletter how the Harris campaign is counting on an untapped group of women voters who maybe not be clued in to Donald Trump’s anti-abortion extremism. But that’s not the only demographic Democrats are hoping will bring home a win for them next Tuesday.

The Hill reports on “ghost voters”—folks who are mostly overlooked in national polls and traditional outreach because of irregular or nonexistent voting history. In this case, the Harris campaign believes that there are young women under 35 years old who are “low propensity” voters but will be motivated to the polls by abortion rights.

After all, that’s what happened in the 2022 midterms: young women who were disgusted by Roe’s demise came out the polls in much higher numbers than expected. The hope is that we’ll see the same thing happen next week.

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake warns, however, “There is a potential for a ghost voter on both sides.”

By the way: If you want predictions about the election, conservatives and the anti-abortion movement, but haven’t bought my new book—maybe this column at The Washington Post will convince you: “Antiabortion activists talk in code. So Jessica Valenti wrote a key.”

Columnist Kate Cohen writes that the book “helps you spot the toxic truths beneath the shifting rhetoric” of anti-abortion politicians, and provides just about the best description ever:

“You know the chemical that allows detectives to see bloodstains at a crime scene that’s been scrubbed? It’s like that: luminol in hardcover.”

And remember, no matter what happens next week, we’ll still need those predictions and decoding. So consider picking up Abortion today.

In the Nation

• The 19th profiles Hadley Duvall, the young woman sharing her story of childhood sexual abuse in order to drive support for abortion rights and Harris;

• Bloomberg on how abortion rights is dominating state Supreme Court races;

• MSNBC has launched a new project: “One in Four: How Abortion Access Shapes America.” The headline refers to the fact that 1 in 4 American women will have an abortion in her lifetime;

• Finally, a community of writers has put together a virtual reading for tomorrow evening to raise money for the Harris campaign. You’ll probably recognize a few of the names participating, so check out the full list and reserve your ticket here.

New Merch Alert

I’m not going to lie—I’m really excited about these stickers. Is it embarrassing to be this revved up about stickers in your mid-40s? Maybe, but who gives a shit! I’m getting all of them. You can, too, at the Abortion, Every Day store.