In the states…
South Carolina lawmakers failed to reach a compromise on their abortion ban yesterday—they’ve been battling it out over just how horrible it should be—which means they won’t be able to pass a law until the next legislative session in January 2023. Right now, the state’s abortion ban is blocked.
Some great news out of Montana—I told you yesterday we couldn’t officially call the ballot measure there a win for abortion rights (and basic human decency), even though that certainly seemed to be the inevitable end result. Well, today we can say it: Montana voters made their voices heard, and as a result we won all five of the abortion-related ballot measures.
Putting abortion directly in voters’ hands is clearly the way to go, and Democrats across the country know it. In South Dakota, I’ve told you that pro-choicers in the state are already collecting signatures and campaigning to get abortion on the ballot in 2024. Excitement for the move is on the rise—especially now that South Dakota will expand Medicaid thanks to a ballot initiative that won with 56% of the vote. It’s clear to activists that voters are eager to make themselves heard not just on candidates, but individual issues.
I’ve mentioned before that in Wisconsin, where abortion is currently banned with no exceptions for rape or incest, Attorney General Josh Kaul is suing to overturn the ban—but post-midterms, there’s a possibility that the issue could be decided by a referendum vote. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Republican Senator Ron Johnson—who were both just re-elected—have both said they believe Wisconsin voters should decide on abortion. I do wonder if Johnson will hold to that promise, though, given how clear it is that voters want abortion to remain legal. Here’s a quick local news segment on the issue:
A new abortion rights-focused PAC has launched in Virginia, where the group is hoping to distribute $1 million to pro-choice candidates in the state’s 2023 General Assembly elections. If you want more info, check them out at Roe Your Vote Virginia.
Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly, who won re-election, attributed part of her victory to abortion rights: “The people of Kansas sent a very clear message at the polls yesterday. Kansans said we will keep moving forward as a state, full steam ahead—there will be no turning backward.”
Voters across the country didn’t want to turn backwards—young voters, in particular. A student at Michigan State University says he saw lines of voters in the school’s polling locations all through election day, and that his peers were fired up about the state’s abortion-related ballot measure, in particular: “I think students want to have the same rights that their parents had when they were younger.” Makes sense to me!
I really liked this roundup of quotes from women in Chicago, Illinois who went to the polls with abortion in mind. One woman said, “I honestly did not consider myself a political person, but in light of all of this and fighting for women’s issues, I said no matter what, I want to come out and do what I can…especially around the abortion issue.” Another said, “I did it for me, my daughter, for the women who came before me.” Couldn’t love it more.
Love this a whole lot less: Abortion rights weren’t able to stave off Republican wins in Texas. Anti-abortion activists in the state are taking this as a sign that, as the director of Texas Right to Life put it, “being bold on life is not going to hurt you in the election.” But voters in Texas actually oppose the state abortion ban by huge margins. The issue is battling back against voters’ overwhelm and discouragement. Drucilla Tigner, deputy director with Planned Parenthood Texas Votes, says Texans already know that abortion access is important; the hurdle is “getting them to believe that they can make a difference in the state on this issue.” (Which is a hard sell considering that there isn’t likely to be a referendum on abortion in Texas anytime soon, and gerrymandering in the state has made fair voting pretty fucking difficult.)
North Carolina Public Radio looks at what happens now on abortion in the state since Republicans failed to secure a supermajority. But they do have enough seats to override a veto from Gov. Roy Cooper; which means that if even just one House Democrat switches their vote on abortion, the state’s abortion law could change right with it. From Jenny Black, the CEO of the Planned Parenthood that runs clinics across North Carolina: “We’re still going to have to fight for abortion access in North Carolina but we lived to fight that fight. We’ve lived to fight another day.”
In the nation…
Democrats and pro-choice activists are obviously eager to get abortion on the ballot in as many states as possible. Anthony Romero, executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union, said, “Let's take this show on the road, let's go to states, and let's prove that we can win in some challenging environment.” He told NPR, “Let's put this to the people.” Anti-abortion groups are so worried about that possibility that they’re trying to frame referendums—which put the decision directly with voters—as doing just the opposite. In other words, they’re lying. Vice president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, for example, said ballot measures “use the courts to try to take the issue out of voters’ hands” and “thwart the legislative process.”
Speaking of SBA Pro-Life America, it’s one of the anti-abortion organizations that are big mad over Republican midterm losses. And because they can’t just admit that Americans are overwhelmingly pro-choice and don’t want to see abortion banned, they’re claiming that Republicans didn’t lean hard enough into abortion. In a memo outlining their midterm takeaways, the conservative women’s group said that candidates who didn’t go on offense over abortion took “the ostrich strategy: burying their heads in the sand and running from the issue” and committed “political malpractice.” Their advice to GOP presidential hopefuls is to focus on Democrats and Biden as “the true extremists who don’t support ANY limits on abortion.”
My prediction is that the GOP’s 2024 strategy on abortion will be two-fold: Yes, they will harp on the idea that Democrats don’t want abortion restrictions at all, but they’re also going to try to paint the idea of 15-week bans as a ‘compromise’ on the issue. (Like I’ve said before, they’re going to use messaging that says a law like this will be ‘commonsense’, ‘reasonable’ or ‘sensible’.)
In The New York Times, pollster Celinda Lake says that the best messaging for Democrats is to avoid talking about gestational limits—but to make broad points about Republicans supporting a national ban. Lake said, “Debating weeks is not where we want to be. People are terrible at math and terrible at biology.”
Related: Stat News points out that gestational age in pregnancy is not straightforward, and that the margin of error can mean the difference between an abortion being legal or not—recounting the story of one Nebraska woman who was denied care because of confusion over how far along she was just by a couple of days. It’s a good reminder—both for how we think of the real life impact of these laws and the messaging around them—of something I’ve argued before: Pregnancy is too complicated to legislate.
Before the midterms, pundits kept warning that Democrats’ bet on abortion was too risky, and that voters were more concerned about inflation. In the Los Angeles Times, Heidi Sieck of the political advocacy group #VOTEPROCHOICE, says, “There is no difference between reproductive freedom and the economy.” It’s a point that feminists have been making over and over again, but that ‘experts’ across the board couldn’t seem to get through their heads. “If you cannot control how many children you have, you cannot control the bills that you have to pay. They’re the same thing,” Sieck says. YES.
Bloomberg opinion editor, Sarah Green Carmichael, says that Republicans underestimated just how important abortion rights were to voters—in part because abortion is unlike any other political issue. It’s personal to Americans, everyone knows and loves someone who has had an abortion; it’s also an issue where there is a clearcut answer:
“Inflation may be a top concern, but even economists don’t agree on how to solve it. Crime is a problem everyone deplores but for which solutions aren’t simple. In comparison, abortion is pretty straightforward and pretty relatable.”
I’ve linked to this research before, but I wanted to highlight it again given that everyone has been in a midterms haze: Abortion bans are going to cause a shocking increase in maternal mortality for Black women, who already are exponentially more likely to die as a result of pregnancy. The expected increase in maternal mortality for Black women due to abortion bans is nearly 40%.
Some other research worth repeating: Clinic violence is on the rise (check out this chilling report from the National Abortion Federation), something that’s going to be a real problem in pro-choice states moving forward.
And exit polls on Tuesday showed that Latino Republican voters are far less anti-abortion than their white cohorts, with 46% saying that abortion should be legal (compared to 26% of white Republicans).
Chris Geidner (who runs the terrific newsletter, Law Dork) has an interview with one of the protesters who interrupted Supreme Court arguments in a pro-choice action; The Cut has an article about Elevated Access, the group of volunteer pilots flying women out of anti-choice states for abortion care; and the Biden administration is directing officials to ensure that pregnant migrants in federal custody have access to abortion if they want it.
Listen up…
In Vermont, which became the first state to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, it wasn’t just women who were campaigning to protect reproductive rights. But Oren Jacobson, co-founder and co-executive director of Men4Choice, says that men are generally passive supporters of abortion rights, and that they need to step up. The VTDigger podcast has an interview with Jacobson—and speaks to three Vermont men about their abortion stories—in an episode about male allies and abortion.
And NPR has a 10 minute segment on what’s next for abortion rights post-midterms in a conversation with a corespondent who has been tracking abortion rights politics, and a policy expert from the Guttmacher Institute.
What conservatives are saying…
Fox News host Greg Gutfeld got super pissed off at his co-host when she talked about how important abortion was in the midterms. I don’t know if it was denial or what, but if you want to see a tiny man throw a big boy fit, Media Matters has the video.
And in an appearance on Fox News, former White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany promised the news channel’s conservative viewership that they need to play the “long game” and that “abortion is going to go away.” I really, really hope that they bank on that idea!
You love to see it…
Seeing this tweet on Tuesday was the point when I started to feel like things might be okay. I had to share it:
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