Abortion, Every Day (10.11.23)
Trump's feigned 'moderate' abortion stance is working with voters
Hey this is Grace Haley, researcher for Abortion, Every Day and I am bringing you the newsletter today. I wanted to start off with my congratulations to Professor Claudia Goldin on her Nobel prize in economics. Her research shows just how important reproductive rights are for combating gender inequality in the workplace and the gender pay gap. Best of luck with her future work! Now onto the newsletter—
To skip ahead, click on the section headlines: In the States, early voting in Ohio, Virginia Republicans purging voter rolls & some rare good news. In the Nation, renewed urgency around Tuberville’s block of military promotions. In Stats & Studies, new data shows that Trump’s strategy of pretending to be moderate on abortion may be working. And in The Care Crisis, a heartbreaking story out of Texas.
In the States
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals announced yesterday that it will be reconsidering the Biden administration’s legal challenge to the near-total abortion ban in Idaho—specifically whether the state can prosecute emergency room doctors. Tuesday’s order temporarily blocks an earlier ruling from the three-judge panel of Trump-appointed Ninth Circuit judges that allowed the state to prosecute doctors who provide emergency abortions. The full court will now hear the legal challenge.
You may remember that the federal government sued Idaho last year, arguing that its ban violated the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (EMTALA), which requires that doctors provide emergency life-saving and stabilizing abortions. After a judge agreed with the Biden administration and blocked parts of the state’s law, Idaho challenged this decision. The small panel of Ninth Circuit judges reversed that ruling in late September.
To be clear: Today’s ruling blocks the state’s ability to prosecute Idaho doctors who give women emergency abortions. We’ll keep you updated as this develops.
Early voting began today in Ohio’s ballot measure election that will determine abortion rights in the state, and the anti-abortion movement is airing a plethora of ads, holding rallies, canvassing, and phone-banking to try to defeat it. The groups are targeting students, Black communities, and other demographics in Democratic early voting blocs, as heavy turnout is expected for the ballot measure vote.
The anti-abortion movement has lost every state referendum since the Dobbs decision, and they are desperate for a political win. And since Ohio is considered a bellwether for future abortion battles going into 2024, abortion opponents are throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks. March for Life President Jeanne Mancini told reporters in Ohio this week that the state is the ultimate political test for the upcoming battles charted by the anti-abortion movement:
“Ohio is the first of a lot to come in the year ahead. That’s why we’re looking even more closely at Ohio: It could easily set the standard.”
For background on Republicans’ efforts to upend the pro-choice ballot measure, click here. And for more information on Issue 1, you can watch “Ohio Decides: Issue 1 Forum” on October 15th at The Columbus Dispatch, The Cincinnati Enquirer, Spectrum News 1, or on the Ohio Debate Commission YouTube channel.
Sens. Mark R. Warner and Tim Kaine are asking the Department of Justice to investigate Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s purge of voter rolls ahead of the Virginia election, which will determine abortion rights in the state. A letter released Tuesday details concerns that the office violated the Voting Rights Act, and potentially affected the voting status of thousands of voters in the state.
Virginia election officials acknowledged that a purge of an unknown number of qualified voters was a mistake and they will correct the issue by the November 7th election. The election—which will determine whether Youngkin will have enough backing to enact a 15-week abortion ban—could be decided by a handful of votes in the closely divided chamber, and it will.
Yesterday the governor launched a $1.4 million ad campaign across the state dedicated to his anti-abortion strategy (read more about this strategy in Jessica’s newsletter here). And today Planned Parenthood announced a new $2 million general election initiative in Virginia to support pro-choice candidates in the state that would block an abortion ban from taking hold.
In a statement made by the Executive Director of the Planned Parenthood Virginia PAC, the group said that they’re “expending all possible resources to ensure that Virginians know which candidates will defend their rights and ensure their access to reproductive health care here in Virginia.” This comes after the Virginia GOP’s attempt to deny that their abortion bans are bans at all.
And no wonder Republicans are pulling out all the stops: New polling shows that likely Virginia voters in competitive districts do not trust the state’s GOP leaders on abortion.
Wyoming state officials have filed a competing motion in the challenge to the state’s abortion ban. They argued that the judge has all the facts needed to deem the ban constitutional, stating that the state constitution does not guarantee a right to abortion, that the procedure is not considered health care, and that the state has the right to criminalize abortion.
As we mentioned last month, the women, OBGYNs and abortion rights groups challenging Wyoming's abortion ban argued the opposite: they filed a motion arguing that the judge has all the facts needed to deem the ban unconstitutional. A hearing date has been scheduled for December 14 to determine the areas of dispute and whether a trial is necessary.
Wyoming’s ban is blocked until next April, when the court is scheduled to hear oral arguments in the case—but the Judge’s upcoming ruling could alter that timeline. Republicans in the state have been trying to hold up the challenge through any means necessary, including by arguing that questions about the ban are too “burdensome” to answer, and by trying to prevent the plaintiff’s experts from testifying.
Some good news: The proposed “Safe Haven City for the Unborn” ordinance in Quincy, Illinois was defeated in a city council meeting yesterday. Aldermen siding with the majority 7-5 vote said that the ordinance violated Illinois legislation protecting abortion rights in the state. Talk of a potential lawsuit was brought up by the ordinance’s sponsor after it was defeated.
As you know, these ordinances are part of a broader conservative strategy targeting border towns in pro-choice states using the Comstock Act as a tool to restrict abortion. We’ve seen lawsuits over similar ordinances in New Mexico in an attempt to affirm and bring the 19th century anti-abortion federal law to higher courts.
Quick hits:
Planned Parenthood is expanding their telehealth services in Pasadena to expand medication abortion access in California;
New Jersey state officials announced that over-the-counter contraceptives will be made available come Spring 2024;
NPR on the pro-abortion billboards lining the 1-55 highway running from eastern Arkansas up through southern Illinois;
And a great new abortion ballot-measure tracker from Rewire News Group.
In the Nation
Stopping Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s block on nominations and promotions has taken on more urgency as the crisis in Israel and Gaza unfolds and hundreds of military positions remain empty. Nine senior military positions in the Middle East command have been caught up in the gridlock, including two picks for the Joint Chiefs and officers leading U.S. forces in the Middle East. As such, Democrats are calling for reform to the Senate nomination process. Most recently Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, a vice-ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee and a combat veteran, announced plans this afternoon to introduce a resolution demanding Tuberville to put a stop to his blockade.
Still, a Tuberville spokesperson told reporters on Sunday that he is not relenting from his blockade of the Pentagon’s abortion policy. His position remains clear: Tuberville won’t change his stance unless the Biden administration revokes its policy of covering travel costs for troops unable to get abortions in states with abortion bans.
The ambassadorships to Israel, Egypt, Oman, and Kuwait also remain empty—along with the top human rights envoy position, the Middle East position within the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the State Department’s top counterterrorism job—in a similar block led by Sens. Ted Cruz, JD Vance and Rand Paul.
It’s unclear whether Democrats have enough votes from Republicans to change the Senate rules, but many wonder if the escalating war will bring movement to the stalemate—whether through Republican pressure on Tuberville, bringing individual votes to the floor, or reform.
Quick hits:
The scientific and medical communities are concerned over the Polish tests that could determine whether someone has taken abortion medication;
A frightening profile of the man behind the decades-long conservative take-over of the courts, and how it’s empowered anti-abortion extremists;
NBC News on whether voters’ anger over abortion rights will trump their concerns over Biden’s age;
The Los Angeles Times Editorial Board on the new anti-abortion tactic to restrict travel and decimate abortion funds;
And Stat News looks at the reproductive rights movement navigating how to criticize individual abortion providers and clinics without giving ammunition to the far-right.
“After someone has survived a crime of violence to their body, a violation to their body…that they cannot have the authority to make a decision about what happens to their body next, that is immoral. And regardless of party affiliation, regardless of one's personal beliefs and the faith that they practice, most people understand what we're talking about.”
Vice President Kamala Harris, speaking last week in Missouri about abortion bans without rape and incest exceptions.
Stats & Studies
We’ve written extensively about Trump’s strategy to brand himself as the reasonable GOP leader on abortion—and some recent numbers indicate the tactic could be working. New polling from Navigator Research shows that a fifth of Republicans believe that Trump thinks abortion should be legal—a 27 point difference from how Republicans view their own party on the issue.
This research also found that there’s a significant difference between how voters view the GOP’s stance on abortion, versus how they see Donald Trump’s: While most think that the Republican Party has extreme anti-abortion attitudes, a notable margin of voters view Donald Trump as less extreme compared to his GOP counterparts.
The same poll showed how most Americans identified themselves as pro-choice (at 64%), so time and time again numbers show just how popular abortion is in the US. Given how deeply unpopular abortion bans are (even among Republicans and those living in red states) Trump’s stance on abortion, as dishonest as it may be, could be successful in winning over key blocs of voters.
It’s difficult to watch Trump position himself as the “reasonable” Republican choice on abortion; his judicial picks are the reason why we have abortion bans and the Dobbs decision in the first place. He ushered in the Supreme Court majority that handed the anti-abortion movement its greatest win in decades, and he appointed judges that have rolled back abortion rights across the country, including the judge at the heart of the Texas mifepristone lawsuit.
Just as frustrating is the way that some media outlets are lending credence to Trump’s tactic by covering him as the “moderate” GOP candidate on abortion—most recently after the anti-abortion movement and conservatives criticized Trump’s comments attacking Ron DeSantis’ 6-week abortion ban.
But we know that this is a scam: the president of the Family Research Council and other anti-abortion leaders have assuaged their faction, saying that after private conversations with the Trump campaign, they’re confident he’ll keep his commitment to the movement by pushing a national abortion ban. The GOP loves a bait and switch, and Trump is master at it.
In short, Trump’s attempt to rewrite his abortion record is working. Despite his anti-abortion record, one in four Republicans say they do not know enough on where Trump stands on the issue, as do independent voters. And the Republicans who think they do know where he stands believe he isn’t an extreme option.
Quick hits:
New data shows that abortion rates in North Carolina fell by a third once the state’s new abortion restrictions went into effect;
New abortion statistics from Utah show that the state’s abortion ban will disproportionately impact communities of color;
And doctors within Utah are leaving the state to escape the state’s abortion ban, making them the latest state to see an exodus of OBGYNs.
The Care Crisis: Forced Birth
If there is one piece to read today, please let it be this: A woman in Texas was forced to carry twins with no chance of survival to term because of the state’s abortion ban and the Texas Tribune reported the incredible toll it took on her emotionally, physically, and financially.
At 16 weeks into her pregnancy, Miranda Michel was informed that her twins wouldn’t survive after birth. They were developing in the same amniotic sac and were conjoined at their chests without proper lungs, or stomachs, and with only one kidney for the two of them. The twins would die the moment they were born, but because they still had a heartbeat, the state would criminalize anyone who might intervene to provide her with an abortion.
Her husband couldn’t take off work to accompany her to New Mexico, the closest state with an abortion clinic. The family couldn’t afford to fly anywhere, or pay for childcare to travel. The high-risk complicated pregnancy was already financially crushing. The fear from her doctor around the word abortion terrified her from even trying to get one.
Because Texas’ abortion ban does not allow for abortions for fatal fetal diagnoses, the state forced her to carry the doomed pregnancy to term and watch her babies die in her arms after giving birth.
I will leave you with this passage from the piece, it is one of many gutting moments:
“Sliding in and out of consciousness, Miranda flashed through the possibilities she’d spent months preparing herself for. Maybe her babies would be born dead, so deformed the doctors wouldn’t show them to her. Maybe they’d live for a few hours. Maybe they’d be strong enough to go to the neonatal intensive care unit. Maybe she’d at least get to say hello and goodbye, a cataclysm of joy and grief she wasn’t sure she would ever recover from…Why would the state of Texas make her carry this doomed pregnancy if there wasn’t some chance?”
I'm coming to the conclusion that Tuberville is still holding a grudge that the military didn't support Trump in his effort to overturn the election or to stop the vote count, and is holding out for a military that will do so in the future. It's a very bad omen.
My husband got his paperwork for insurance renewal this week. Apparently, the South Carolina state health plan has added coverage for birth control for qualified dependents for the first time. Totally a business decision, since it will be cheaper to cover birth control than to pay for all the pregnancies our stupid anti-choice laws will cause.
Not that this will help anyone 1. not on the state health plan; or 2. in a household with someone who believes all birth control is abortion. Plenty of the latter in SC.