Abortion is on the Ballot, Here's What You Need to Know

The 2025 elections matter

It’s not a presidential election year or the midterms—but abortion is still on the ballot Tuesday. And what happens in the states will have national implications.

In Virginia, the last state in the South that protects abortion rights, Democrats are fighting to hold on to their razor-thin majority—control that will determine whether those protections survive. In Pennsylvania, voters will decide the fate of three state Supreme Court justices whose rulings could shape not just abortion access in the state, but the next presidential election. And in California, a single ballot measure could influence whether Democrats keep control of Congress—and whether a national abortion ban is on the horizon.

This election matters. Abortion, Every Day has everything you need to know about these races—from the candidates and issues to the anti-abortion strategies playing out on the campaign trail. Feel free to skip ahead using the headers below:

- A National Abortion Ban? California’s Prop 50 May Decide

- How Will Virginia’s Election Impact Abortion?

- New Jersey’s Gubernatorial Race & Abortion

- Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court Race & Abortion

- All Eyes Are On New York

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A National Abortion Ban? California’s Prop 50 May Decide

The stakes of California’s Prop 50 couldn’t be higher: Gov. Gavin Newsom’s push to redraw key districts in the state could determine whether Republicans are able to pass a national abortion ban.

If you haven’t been following the gerrymandering fight, here’s the short version: Republican-led states like Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio have redrawn their congressional maps—an underhanded tactic meant to give the GOP a majority in the U.S. House. Last week, Indiana’s Republican governor joined the list—calling for a special session to do the same.

But California is fighting fire with fire: Prop 50 would allow the state to redraw its map in a way that benefits Democrats—an effort to stave off a Republican takeover of Congress.

There’s no overstating how important this is. A Republican majority would be disastrous for Americans across the board—and for abortion rights, in particular.

First on the GOP agenda would be Sen. Lindsey Graham’s 15-week abortion ban, or a bill like it. Sure, Republicans might prefer a total or near-total ban, but they know how unpopular abortion restrictions are—and that the Trump administration has tried to distance itself from big anti-abortion moves. Here’s what AED predicted last November:

Despite the disgraced former president’s promises to veto a ban, Republicans simply wouldn’t call it that. Instead, they’d say that they’re passing a ‘minimum national standard’ on abortion. Because remember, the only thing that they consider an abortion ban these days is total prohibition—no exceptions, even to save a woman’s life. They’d push for something like the 15-week abortion ban Sen. Lindsey Graham has been proposing and insist it’s merely a restriction.

Remember when JD Vance tried to claim he didn’t support a national ban, but a “minimum national standard?” He was talking about Graham’s bill! Vance also referred to the legislation as a restriction on ‘late’ abortion—which is the other tactic we’ve warned about when it comes to national legislation. Since Dobbs, the anti-abortion movement has been trying to define ‘late’ abortion as anything after 12 weeks into pregnancy. It’s a way for them to push a ban while claiming it’s just a ‘reasonable restriction.’

No matter what they call it, Republicans would waste no time banning abortion. So if you know anyone in California, give them a gentle—or not-so-gentle—nudge about voting Tuesday.

How Will Virginia’s Election Impact Abortion?

Virginia is the last pro-choice state in the South. Most of Virginia’s neighboring states restrict abortion: Florida and Georgia enforce six-week bans, North Carolina enforces a 12-week ban, and Tennessee enforces a total ban.

So as you can imagine, Virginia—where abortion remains legal through about 27 weeks—has become a haven for traveling patients: Between 2023 and 2024, out-of-state abortions made up nearly a quarter of all procedures.

Virginia is also a deep-purple state: the governor’s mansion has frequently alternated between Democrat and Republican, and Democrats currently hold a barely-there majority.

Where do Virginians stand on abortion? 71% of voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. And when Republicans went all in on their anti-abortion messaging in 2023—they got crushed:

The GOP's Polling Problem

In Virginia’s general assembly races, Democrats will try to retain their narrow majority. If they do, they’re expected to advance a constitutional abortion rights amendment to go on the 2026 ballot. Virginia law requires the legislature to pass the same measure twice—across two sessions—before it goes to voters. They’ve already passed it once. But if Republicans win a majority, they’ll block the amendment entirely.

In Virginia’s governor race, Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former member of Congress, is running against Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. Earle-Sears is the current lieutenant governor to anti-abortion extremist Gov. Glenn Youngkin—who has repeatedly vetoed bills to codify a right to birth control, and championed a 15-week abortion ban.

But Earle-Sears doesn’t need Youngkin’s help to sound extreme. In May, Earle-Sears denied that she wants to “limit access” to abortion; but in reality, she has…

• referred to abortion as “genocide”;

• backed 15- and six-week abortion bans;

• equated consent to sex with consent to pregnancy;

• and even issued what appeared to be an ominous threat: “Murder is murder. And one day it’s going to be your turn.”

Spanberger, meanwhile, has highlighted the real-world consequences of abortion bans, noting simply: “Women have died.” When Earle-Sears accused her during an October debate of supporting abortion ‘up until birth’, Spanberger replied, “I support the current laws within Virginia, which include limits on minors obtaining abortions, which include limits after the second trimester.”

This, of course, isn’t ideal: The government shouldn’t restrict abortion access, and minors shouldn’t face greater barriers to bodily autonomy. But it’s extremely clear which of these candidates is more willing to work with reproductive rights advocates and doctors in the state. (And which is totally out of her mind.)

What do the polls say? Polls have Spanberger handily beating Earle-Sears, but remember: Polls don’t vote. And over the last couple weeks, Spanberger’s lead has been as small as four points and as big as 15.

What’s the anti-abortion strategy? Manufacturing outrage. For months, Virginia Republicans have tried to gin up scandal with a fabricated story about a high school counselor helping two 17-year-olds get abortions. Earle-Sears openly celebrated the story as a boon to the party, Youngkin ordered state police to investigate, and even the Trump administration got involved. Surprise, surprise: It was all fake! For a breakdown of that whole mess, click here.

HuffPost also has an excellent story on how Virginia Republicans leaned on culture war rhetoric—like bigoted ‘parental rights’ messaging and attacking trans kids—to propel them to victory back in 2021. But three years after Dobbs, the tactic doesn’t pack quite the same punch.

In Virginia’s attorney general race, Democrat Jay Jones is challenging Republican, anti-abortion extremist Attorney General Jason Miyares. Miyares knows how unpopular his position is: Earlier this month, he scrubbed mention of his planned remarks at an anti-abortion conference.

Let’s be clear: in a moment when pregnancy-related criminal charges are surging, state attorneys general play a critical role. They can issue guidance protecting patients and providers—or give police the green light to prosecute people for their pregnancies.

New Jersey’s Gubernatorial Race & Abortion

Right now, just nine states and D.C. protect abortion rights without gestational limits. That access can be health- and life-saving for patients who have few places to turn for care. New Jersey is one of those states.

Democratic nominee Rep. Mikie Sherrill has pledged to keep it that way and enshrine a right to abortion in the state constitution. GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli can’t say the same.

Instead, Ciattarelli is running the standard Republican post-Dobbs playbook: pretending to be a lot more moderate on abortion than he actually is. During a debate earlier this month, he even had the audacity to claim he’s “always supported a woman’s right to choose.” Remember PICO? Pro-choice In Campaign Only.

The truth: Ciattarelli has made clear he’ll sign a 20-week ban, appoint anti-abortion judges, and defund Planned Parenthood. He also has close ties to the anti-abortion crisis pregnancy centers that lie to, and spy on, abortion seekers.

Where do New Jersey voters stand on abortion? A poll from 2023 shows a resounding three-quarters of New Jersey voters support a right to abortion.

What do the polls say? New Jersey tends to lean blue, but Sherrill and Ciattarelli are neck-and-neck in the latest polling—with Sherrill edging him out by four points. Other recent polls put Sherrill as much as 10 points ahead of Ciattarelli, while yet another poll from last week puts her just two points ahead of him. In other words: Remind your friends in New Jersey to vote.

Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court Race & Abortion

In Pennsylvania, state Supreme Court justices face retention votes every ten years. Tuesday, voters will decide whether three Democratic justices on the seven-member bench—Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty, and David Wecht—keep their seats.

A “yes” vote will preserve the court’s 5–2 liberal majority; a “no” vote would remove the justices and open the door for conservative replacements.

We’ve already seen how high the stakes are. Just last year, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that the state’s ban on Medicaid funding for abortion could be considered sex-based discrimination under the state’s Equal Rights Amendment. That case was sent back to a lower court, meaning the question of Medicaid funding for abortion is sure to return to the high court soon.

Where do Pennsylvanians stand on abortion? About 70% of Pennsylvania voters want a federal right to abortion. Last year, about half of Pennsylvanians ranked abortion as a top issue driving them to the polls.

What does abortion access look like in Pennsylvania? Abortion is legal until around the 23rd week of pregnancy. The state borders reproductive-rights havens like New York, Maryland, and Delaware—but also West Virginia, which enforces a total ban. Since Dobbs, Pennsylvania has seen an influx of out-of-state patients: in the weeks after the ruling, one clinic reported that the share of out-of-state patients jumped from 30% to 70%.

What’s the anti-abortion strategy? The same one Republicans are using everywhere: lies and confusion. Last week, we reported on a Super PAC that plastered “No Kings, No Retention” signs around the state—an attempt to trick voters out of supporting the Democratic justices on the ballot.

As Indivisible Bucks County co-leader Kierstyn Zolfo put it:

“Purposely trying to cause confusion is one variety of voter suppression, and it’s no surprise the reactionary right is falling back on one of their oldest strategies.”

As usual, Republicans know their anti-abortion extremism is unpopular, so they’re simply trying to rebrand it. Democracy Docket has also reported that the GOP is behind an extensive disinformation campaign, including a slew of misleading mailers claiming the liberal justices gerrymandered Pennsylvania’s congressional districts, cost Trump the 2020 election, shut down the state during COVID, and more.

What about the national implications? Pennsylvania is a crucial swing state every election year. In 2020—after the state cost Trump reelection—he filed a barrage of lawsuits attempting to steal the election. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court rejected his efforts, thanks to its liberal majority. If conservatives retake the court, we may not be so lucky next time.

All Eyes Are On New York

Let’s talk about New York City, where Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani has put reproductive justice on the ballot. Mamdani has pledged to roll out a universal child care program if elected—a policy that would benefit everyone, but especially women.

Lack of access to child care disproportionately forces women out of the workforce, and can skew the reproductive decision-making of women who would otherwise want children. Between 2005 and 2015, child care costs surged by an astonishing 168%.

Reproductive justice demands that each of us be able to decide whether and when to have children—with all the rights and resources we need to do so in safe, healthy communities. Universal child care is a crucial component of that vision—as is another of Mamdani’s proposals: ‘baby baskets’ for new parents. These boxes, which include essentials like diapers and swaddling cloths (and can even double as a bassinet!), have been a huge success in other countries.

Like we said: this election matters.

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